India’s Q4 GDP Growth Data: The official gross domestic product (GDP) data for Q4FY24 is scheduled to be released on Friday, May 31, by the National Statistical Office (NSO). Though the RBI expects India’s Q4 GDP growth at 7.3 per cent, various analysts peg the Q4 economic growth between 5.9 per cent and 6.7 per cent. All the estimates are lower than the over 8% GDP growth recorded in the previous three quarters of 2023-24.
Rating agency Icra expects India’s GDP to grow 6.7 per cent in Q4FY24, State Bank of India (SBI) sees a 5.9 per cent growth, Kotak Institutional Equities pegs the Q4 GDP growth at 6.1 per cent. Though India Ratings and EY expect the Indian economy to expand by 6.2 per cent and 6.5 per cent, respectively, the RBI sees the country’s GDP growth at 7.3 per cent in the January-March 2024 quarter.
The Indian economy grew 8.2 per cent in the June 2023 quarter (Q1 FY24), 8.1 per cent in the following September quarter (Q2 FY24) and 8.4 per cent in the December quarter of 2023-24 (Q3 FY24).
Apart from the Q4 GDP numbers, the provisional estimates for the 2023-24 fiscal year will also be released by the government on May 31. According to estimates, the expected growth in 2023-24 fiscal is estimated to be in the range of 7.6-7.8 per cent.
India’s GDP expanded 6.1 per cent in the March quarter of 2022-23 fiscal, as per May 31, 2023 estimates. The growth for full fiscal 2022-23 was 7 per cent.
Q4 GDP, Full FY24 Growth: What Analysts Say
“Lower volume growth coupled with diminishing gains from commodity prices dampening the profitability of some of the industrial sectors is expected to dampen India’s GVA growth in Q4 FY2024,” said Aditi Nayar, chief economist and head (research and outreach) at ICRA.
GDP is the total value of goods and services produced in a given period, while GVA is GDP minus net taxes (gross tax collection minus subsidy).
She added that notwithstanding the overhang of the unfavourable 2023 monsoon rains on agriculture output, there are some green shoots suggesting that a nascent revival in rural demand may be on the anvil.
However, Kotak Mahindra Bank Chief Economist Upasna Bhardwaj said high-frequency data suggests robust growth across the board. Also, trade and hotels have held up in the fourth quarter.
“Manufacturing activities have also been good, and construction linked and investment segments should be doing better, but agriculture sector growth could be a laggard and see contraction during the quarter. We are expecting 6.1 per cent GDP growth for the fourth quarter and as a result, the full-year number for GDP growth should be close to 7.6 per cent,” Bhardwaj said.
For the current fiscal 2024-25, Kotak Mahindra Bank expects growth to be 6.6 per cent but with an upward bias. Bhardwaj said rural consumption is likely to pick up pace, but exports growth could be impacted in the second half of the current fiscal.
EY India Chief Policy Advisor DK Srivastava said both domestic and international institutions are forecasting a robust growth of around 7 per cent for India in the fiscal year 2025.
“It is anticipated that the GDP growth in the fourth quarter of the fiscal year 2024 might surpass 6.5 per cent, leading to an annual growth close to 7.8 per cent as projected by the IMF,” Srivastava said.
For the full 2023-24 fiscal, ICRA estimates GDP growth to come in at 7.8 per cent.
The Reserve Bank, in its monetary policy review in April, projected GDP growth for 2023-24 at 7 per cent.
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