Seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) sales of new vehicles are expected to stay flat at 15.8 million units, according to the report.
WHY IT IS IMPORTANT
Rising inventories are leading to larger discounts from both manufacturers and retailers, resulting in falling transaction prices.
The industry continues to be impacted by reduced leasing activity from three years ago. Fewer leases signed back then mean fewer lessees are returning to dealers to purchase or lease a new vehicle.
BY THE NUMBERS
Total new-vehicle sales for September, including retail and non-retail transactions, are expected to be down 1.8% at 1,164,900 units from a year ago.
The same sales volume without adjusting for the number of selling days translates to a decrease of 13.2% from 2023.
Transaction prices are trending towards USD 44,467, down USD 1,296 or 2.8% from a year earlier while the average incentive spend per vehicle has grown 63.2%.
Total retailer profit per unit - which includes vehicles' gross plus finance and insurance income - is expected to be USD 2,249, down 29% from September 2023.
KEY QUOTES
"In September, the interest in EVs by new-vehicle shoppers reached a low point for the year. Just 21.7% of new-vehicle shoppers said they were 'very likely' to consider an EV for their next new-vehicle purchase, a 4.2-percentage-point drop from a year ago," said Elizabeth Krear, vice president, electric vehicle practice at J.D. Power.
"While the rate adjustment is a positive for the industry, the effect will be neither immediate nor linear whether it's improving vehicle affordability for consumers, reducing the cost of low APR (annual percentage rate) deals for manufacturers or helping retailers with floorplan expense," said Thomas King, president of the data and analytics division at J.D. Power.
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