“Under its national plan, China is targeting green hydrogen production of 200,000 tpa by the end of 2025 but it would exceed that volume by the end of this year,” it said.
The research firm added that the 2.5 GW capacity is expected to produce 220,000 tpa of green hydrogen, which is six-kilotonnes-per-annum (ktpa) more than the rest of the world combined.
“By 2030, China’s four largest projects will account for up to half of the country’s total green hydrogen production capacity,” said the analysis.
It added that Mainland China has installed a cumulative one-gigawatt of electrolyzer capacity in 2023. However, a substantial portion of China's hydrogen supply is derived from grey hydrogen, produced through coal gasification or steam methane reforming.
“If China intends to achieve its dual carbon objectives of peaking emissions by 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060, switching to low-carbon hydrogen production methods will be crucial,” it said.
According to Minh Khoi Le, head of hydrogen research, Rystad Energy, while China's proposed standards and solutions represent progress, they currently fall short of the more stringent benchmarks set by European counterparts.
“The ambiguity surrounding the definitions of 'low carbon' and 'renewable' hydrogen within China's policies is a notable concern. It is imperative for China to adopt clear and stringent definitions that align with global best practices, such as those seen in Europe,” Le added.
China has significant solar and wind power potential in its north and northwest regions, including Xinjiang, Gansu and Inner Mongolia. The nation’s solar PV capacity surged to 217 GW of new installations in 2023, 2.5 times the amount installed in 2022. For wind installations, 76 GW was added in 2023, double that of 2022, the research firm.
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